Kenyan politics takes yet another twist. The Supreme Court has rendered its verdict and Kenyans will be back to the ballot box within 60 days. This decision handed NASA’s leader Raila Odinga a lifeline in his quest to ascend to the country’s presidency. If he fails, his political career is all but over. The road to a re-run of the presidential election won’t be easy for NASA. My humble submission is that NASA’s problems run much deeper than a stolen election.
Even with a clear strategy, it will take a Herculean effort by NASA to record victory.
The starting point is a super turnout in NASA strongholds followed by a near clean sweep in these areas. I am thinking here of Nyanza, Western, Eastern and Coast.
Then ensure a strong show in ‘toss up’ areas like parts of Maa land, North Eastern and Nairobi.
NASA has to ensure it sandbags areas like Eastern, Coast and Western and deny Jubilee an opportunity to make inroads, even minimal in these areas.
NASA has to hold Jubilee at bay in its strongholds and make significant inroads into its territory.
If that doesn’t happen, I am afraid the numbers will conspire against Raila, yet again. I have said privately and in public that if Raila was born Kikuyu or Kalenjin, he would have been Kenya’s president many times over by now.
No one in government, not one individual can hold a candle to his credentials. We owe a lot to him and his efforts in fighting for right and fair.
What will win Jubilee the election will be a combination of two factors; on one hand the massive advantage of incumbency and the overwhelming government machinery and financial resources that come with it which Jubilee has in the past and will deploy to maximum effect. Jubilee will double effort in this area to ensure victory.
On the other hand there is the factor of tribalism. Kenya is a deeply tribal nation and majority of people tend to vote where their tribal warlords tell them to. This is true on either side of politics.
Jubilee will not win on the back of good governance, prudent economic management, jobs creation or even grand infrastructure, healthcare or education plans. None of that.
Talk of the absolute failure in leadership when it came to dealing with the striking doctors, the nurses are still on strike, a strike by teachers looms large, lectures might follow suit.
What about the cost of living and insecurity? How about the laptops for all primary school kids and connecting all schools to the national grid? The list goes on. Jubilee failed to deliver most of the core promises made in the last election.
It will be all about whipping its tribal base and shamelessly stirring insecurities and irrational emotions that go with such politics.
It has worked many times before and Jubilee knows it will work again.
As I alluded to previously, and just like in previous elections, unless NASA changes tact, the numbers will conspire against Raila yet again.